Market Sense and Nonsense

MARKET SENSE AND NONSENSE When it comes to investment models and theories of how markets work, convenience usually trumps reality. The simple fact is that many revered investment theories and market models are flatly wrong-that is, if we insist that they work in the real world. Unfounded assumptions, erroneous theories, unrealistic models, cognitive biases, emotional foibles, and unsubstantiated beliefs all combine to lead investors astray-pro- fessionals as well as novices. In this engaging new book, Jack Schwager, bestselling author of the Market Wizards series, takes aim at some of the most pervasive market precepts, money management misconceptions, and irrational investor behav- iors. From the theory of efficient markets to buying in up markets and selling in down markets, Schwager turns each misguided idea on its head, one at a time. Supported by a wealth of well-documented historical evidence and a healthy dose of common sense, he exposes the truth about the cherished assumptions and fallacious thinking at the core of some of the most respected investment theories and models and explores many common investor errors. In this book, you'll discover why: Expert opinion is NOT more reliable than the proverbial dart-throwing chimp The markets are NOT efficient Low volatility does NOT necessarily imply low risk, and high volatility does NOT necessarily imply high risk Market prices are NOT normally distributed Investing in equities when markets are doing well is NOT conducive to achieving above-average returns Concentrating on funds with the strongest record of returns is NOT a sound strategy Past returns are NOT a reliable indicator of future performance A hedge fund portfolio strategy is NOT riskier than a traditional portfolio approach VaR does NOT provide a good indication of worst-case risk Superior performance does NOT necessarily imply manager skill But Schwager does much more than simply burst bubbles; he offers a sobering draught of real-world invest- ment insight and guidance spanning both traditional and alternative investment classes. Drawing upon his years as an asset manager and trader, he shares priceless lessons on an array of investing topics, both basic and advanced, including portfolio management, risk assessment, investment selection, hedge fund investing, investment timing, and much more. Market Sense and Nonsense is an indispensable source of real-world market wisdom and investing know-how for investors of every ilk.