Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry's actuarial tables and the gambler's roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Ab…
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Produktdetails
Weitere Autoren: King, Mervyn
- ISBN: 978-1-324-00477-6
- EAN: 9781324004776
- Produktnummer: 31703689
- Verlag: W W Norton & Co
- Sprache: Englisch
- Erscheinungsjahr: 2020
- Seitenangabe: 544 S.
- Masse: H23.7 cm x B16.5 cm x D3.7 cm 865 g
- Gewicht: 865
Über den Autor
John Kay is an economist and Fellow of St. John's College, University of Oxford.
100 weitere Werke von John Kay:
Loose-Leaf Version for Understanding Western Society, Combined Volume: A History
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