Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management

Presents systems-based theory, methodology, and applications in risk modeling, assessment, and management This book examines risk analysis, focusing on quantifying risk and constructing probabilities for real-world decision-making, including engineering, design, technology, institutions, organizations, and policy. The author presents fundamental concepts (hierarchical holographic modeling; state space; decision analysis; multi-objective trade-off analysis) as well as advanced material (extreme events and the partitioned multi-objective risk method; multi-objective decision trees; multi-objective risk impact analysis method; guiding principles in risk analysis); avoids higher mathematics whenever possible; and reinforces the material with examples and case studies. The book will be used in systems engineering, enterprise risk management, engineering management, industrial engineering, civil engineering, and operations research. The fourth edition of Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management features: Expanded chapters on systems-based guiding principles for risk modeling, planning, assessment, management, and communication; modeling interdependent and interconnected complex systems of systems with phantom system models; and hierarchical holographic modeling An expanded appendix including a Bayesian analysis for the prediction of chemical carcinogenicity, and the Farmer's Dilemma formulated and solved using a deterministic linear model Updated case studies including a new case study on sequential Pareto-optimal decisions for emergent complex systems of systems A new companion website with over 200 solved exercises that feature risk analysis theories, methodologies, and applications An authoritative account of the fundamentals of risk assessment and risk-informed decision making; a masterful mix of theory and real world applications Ali Mosleh, Director, B. John Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences, UCLA School of Engineering and Applied Science Students, instructors and practitioners working in risk management will need a copy of the Fourth Edition of Professor Haimes' seminal book to keep abreast of the very latest innovative ideas in the theory and practice of risk concepts from an interdisciplinary, systems thinking and multiple objective decision-making perspective. Keith W. Hipel, President, Academy of Science, Royal Society of Canada; University Professor, Department of Systems Design Engineering, University of Waterloo This Fourth Edition will truly empower readers with both theory and practical knowledge necessary to embrace the challenges in the next decades. Duan Li, Patrick Huen Wing Ming Professor of Systems Engineering & Engineering Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong